国际贸易中出口关税政策调整的效应分析——以俄罗斯提高原木出口关税为例

贸易大国出口关税政策的调整具有福利效应、收入效应和需求弹性效应。本文以俄罗斯原木出口关税政策调整为例,利用经济学理论分析了国际贸易中的准垄断效应和需求弯曲效应,拓展了对国际贸易中效应问题的认识。     

全球价值链影响下的中国关税水平*——来自中国制造业的证据

本文基于中国政治经济背景,构建了一个关税影响因素理论模型,且利用2005—2011年中国制造业134个部门的数据,通过OLS和Tobit方法进行了经验验证。结果表明：（1）外国最终产品中的中国增加值越高,或者中国最终产品中的外国增加值越高,则中国对于该产品的关税水平越低;（2）贸易协定的签署不仅会直接降低中国的关税,还会扩大中国增加值上升对关税的负影响,削弱外国增加值上升对关税的负影响。     

How COVID-19 Medical Supply Shortages Led to Extraordinary Trade and Industrial Policy

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, a global shortage of hospital gowns, gloves, surgical masks, and respirators caused policymakers globally to panic. China increased imports and decreased exports of this personal protective equipment, removing supplies from world markets. Shortages led to European Union and US export controls as well as other extraordinary policy actions, including a US effort to reserve supplies manufactured in China by a US-headquartered multinational. By April 2020, China's exports had mostly resumed, and over the rest of the year its export volumes surged. But China's export prices also skyrocketed and remained elevated through 2020, reflecting severe and continued shortages. This paper explores these and other government actions, such as US trade war tariffs and US industrial policy in the form of over $1 billion of subsidies to build out its domestic personal protective equipment supply chain, as well as potential lessons for future pandemic preparedness and international policy cooperation.     

Income distribution and unequal gains from trade

This paper studies welfare gains from trade in a tractable model with a nonhomothetic preference over product quality. We show that the welfare changes due to trade shocks are unequal across consumers and derive a parsimonious formula to measure these welfare changes as in Arkolakis et al. (2012, American Economic Review, 102, 94–130). We find that the welfare changes are larger for consumers with lower income. Moreover, this paper shows that the welfare implications are different between a change in (iceberg-type) variable trade cost and a change in tariff when tariff revenue matters. More importantly, we show that the difference varies across consumers with different income levels.     

两部制许可契约下技术转移差异化和统一许可定价策略比较研究

针对技术转移过程中的差异化和统一许可定价问题，本文分别构建了两阶段差异化定价和统一定价博弈模型，讨论了两部制许可契约下的最优技术许可定价决策及社会效率配置问题。研究发现，相对于统一许可定价，差异化许可定价能够促进研发企业和生产企业一体化协调；差异化许可定价允许生产配置效率更高的企业生产更多的产量，进而提高了社会配置效率；差异化许可定价下，尽管研发企业可以降低对生产配置效率更高的企业的提成，但是可以向其收取较高的固定费用，进而可以缓解因过度的许可定价差异所引起的“水床效应”；当生产企业的产品替代性较强时，研发企业的统一许可定价更有利于改善社会福利，但加剧了市场竞争；除此之外，差异化许可定价更有利于改善社会福利。     

外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响

本文利用UNCTAD数据和中国人口普查微观数据,基于地区就业的行业结构和贸易对象国对中国征收的行业层面的进口关税,构建地区层面外部关税变动指标,研究外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响。研究发现:(1)外部关税下降幅度越高的地区,总体就业、可贸易部门和不可贸易部门的就业增加也越多;(2)出口和内销规模扩张的就业创造效应、生产率提升的就业破坏效应,是外部关税下降影响地区可贸易部门就业的重要渠道;(3)外部关税下降带来的地区可贸易部门出口扩张、就业增加和工资上涨,通过产业关联和消费驱动等正向溢出效应增加地区不可贸易部门就业,通过就业的部门间再配置效应减少地区不可贸易部门就业;(4)外部关税下降对地区不可贸易部门就业的影响呈现出先抑制后促进的动态演进过程,这与外部关税变动下中国区域劳动力供给的调整紧密相关。此外,外部关税变动对地区不同属性劳动力就业的影响效果存在显著差异。本文的研究结论对于外部关税变动下稳定区域劳动力就业的相关政策制定具有一定的参考意义。     

谈判势力与中间品关税政策研究

中间品国际贸易对全球贸易举足轻重。当前文献聚焦于最终品关税政策的研究，对中间品关税政策的模型研究关注不足。构建拥有一体化企业和中间品生产企业的D国和拥有依赖中间品进口才能完成生产的最终品生产企业的F国在第三国市场开展产量竞争的博弈模型，分析企业同时或先后进入市场时中间品生产企业的谈判势力对两国中间品关税政策的影响。研究发现：①无论企业是否同时进入第三国市场，一体化企业所在国家均会选择对中间品选择出口征税干预政策，其社会福利与企业进入顺序相关。当最终品生产企业先进入市场或一体化企业与最终品生产企业同时进入市场时，D国社会福利相较于自由贸易时得到优化，当一体化企业先进入市场时，D国社会福利遭到恶化，两国实行的贸易政策陷入“囚徒困境”。②当F国实行贸易干预时，中间品关税政策与企业进入顺序密切相关。当最终品生产企业先进入市场时，F国将对中间产品进口征税；当一体化企业先进入市场或双方同时进入市场时，若谈判势力相对较强，F国将实行征税，反之则会实行进口补贴。     

Trade liberalization,wilful credit defaults and bank bribery in a credit-constrained economy

The rising incidence of credit defaults may cause credit crunch. This affects the ability of firms to finance working capital and also fixed capital formation. Naturally, this is a major macroeconomic shock. This paper is an attempt to address the microeconomic foundation of such macroeconomic shock. We provide a theoretical framework to explain the economic rationale behind ‘wilful corporate defaults’ and ‘financial corruption’ in the specific context of trade liberalization. First, we model the behavioural aspects of wilful corporate defaulters and bank officials to determine the bank bribe rate as an outcome of the Nash bargaining process in a two-stage sequential move game. Based on the results of the partial equilibrium framework, we examine aspects of trade liberalization in an otherwise 2 × 2 general equilibrium framework. We also compare the efficacy of punishment strategies to economic incentives to deter credit defaults and banking sector corruption. Methodologically, our analytical model integrates finance capital distinctly from physical capital in Jonesian general equilibrium framework. Interestingly, our findings indicate that there exists a trade-off at equilibrium between curbing credit defaults and bribery. We also find that not all punishment strategies are equally effective at deterring credit defaults if general equilibrium interlinkage effects are carefully dealt with.     

Competitive sustainable processes and pricing decisions in omnichannel closed-up supply chains under different channel power structures

In recent years, omnichannel retailing and remanufacturing issues have rapidly emerged in the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC). The omnichannel is a combination of online and in-store retailing, and it affects supply chain relationships and channel power structures by changing value creation processes. It allows consumers a hybrid shopping experience where they can order products online and pick them up in the store or test in-store and buy online (TSBO). Despite this practice, no studies exist on CLSC considering omnichannel retailing under different channel power structures. We investigate the TSBO retailing strategy and its impact on CLSC profit considering price competition between manufacturer and remanufacturer under Manufacturer Stackelberg (MS), Retailer Stackelberg (RS), Vertical Nash (VN), and cooperation (CO) models game settings. In this paper, mathematical models are developed to drive the optimal solution. A two-part tariff coordination mechanism (i.e., IS model) is also used to integrate all supply chain members. The proposed models examine the environmental and social welfare benefits of adopting green innovation products and remanufacturing processes in omnichannel retailing. A numerical study is carried out to illustrate the proposed models' application. The results show that the IS model can synchronize the economic, environmental, and social aspects leading to significant increases in performance. Total supply chain profit under the CO model is the highest. The manufacturer and remanufacturer generate higher profits in the MS model, whereas the retailer makes higher profits in the RS and VN models. When a manufacturer only wants to increase profit with green processes and is not concerned about omnichannel processes, more resources must be allocated for green innovation.     

The impact of loneliness on compliance with COVID-19 prevention guidelines

Many individuals have been reluctant to follow the COVID-19 prevention guidelines (e.g., wearing a mask, physical distancing, and vigilant handwashing) set forth by the U.S. Center for Disease Control to reduce the spread of COVID-19. In this research, we use reciprocal altruism theory to investigate the role of loneliness and its impact on compliance with these guidelines. Our findings indicate that lonely individuals are less willing to comply with COVID-19 prevention guidelines than non-lonely individuals. Process evidence suggests that this occurs as loneliness can inhibit an individual's sense of obligation to reciprocate to others. However, we demonstrate that framing information about COVID-19 through agentic (vs. communal) advertising messaging strategies can offset the negative impact of loneliness on compliance with COVID-19 prevention guidelines. Thus, marketers and policymakers may want to consider the important role of loneliness when tailoring messaging appeals that encourage compliance with COVID-19 prevention guidelines.